The Hockey Stick Illusion, by Andrew Montford
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The Hockey Stick Illusion, by Andrew Montford
Free PDF Ebook The Hockey Stick Illusion, by Andrew Montford
Andrew Montford's The Hockey Stick Illusion is one of the best science books in years. It exposes in delicious detail, datum by datum, how a great scientific mistake of immense political weight was perpetrated, defended and camouflaged by a scientific establishment that should now be red with shame. It is a book about principal components, data mining and confidence intervals--subjects that have never before been made thrilling. It is the biography of a graph...Montford's book is written with grace and flair. Like all the best science writers, he knows that the secret is not to leave out the details (because this just results in platitudes and leaps of faith), but rather to make the details delicious, even to the most unmathematical reader. I never thought I would find myself unable to put a book down because--sad, but true--I wanted to know what happened next in an r-squared calculation. This book deserves to win prizes. Matt Ridley, Prospect Andrew Montford tells this detective story in exhilarating style. Joe Brannan, Geoscientist For anybody who wants to understand the scientific and psychological background to Climategate, there is no better read than Andrew Montford's new book, The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science. Peter Foster, National Post Originally published in 2010, this is a new edition under the author's own imprint.
The Hockey Stick Illusion, by Andrew Montford- Amazon Sales Rank: #888913 in eBooks
- Published on: 2015-11-15
- Released on: 2015-11-15
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review Andrew Montford's The Hockey Stick Illusion is one of the best science books in years. It exposes in delicious detail, datum by datum, how a great scientific mistake of immense political weight was perpetrated, defended and camouflaged by a scientific establishment that should now be red with shame. It is a book about principal components, data mining and confidence intervals--subjects that have never before been made thrilling. It is the biography of a graph...Montford's book is written with grace and flair. Like all the best science writers, he knows that the secret is not to leave out the details (because this just results in platitudes and leaps of faith), but rather to make the details delicious, even to the most unmathematical reader. I never thought I would find myself unable to put a book down because--sad, but true--I wanted to know what happened next in an r-squared calculation. This book deserves to win prizes.Matt Ridley, ProspectAndrew Montford tells this detective story in exhilarating style.Joe Brannan, Geoscientist For anybody who wants to understand the scientific and psychological background to Climategate, there is no better read than Andrew Montford's new book, The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science. Peter Foster, National Post
About the Author Andrew Montford - The author studied chemistry at St Andrews University. He is a respected blogger at Bishop Hill where his layperson's explanations of the Hockey Stick debate have won wide acclaim. He lives in rural Scotland with his wife and three children.
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Most helpful customer reviews
279 of 366 people found the following review helpful. hockey story By Amazon Customer This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes from all sides). I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful. Lifting the lid on a global conspiracy - a brave attempt. By Bruce Rapley One of the most important books of modern times. A very erudite, well-read commentator on science and society, Montford demolishes the global warming scam, one lie at a time. This is one of the most important books to read if you are the least bit concerned about maintaining life on this planet. A very brave man, Monford stands agains the plethora of commentators who have been bought by governments and big industry to promote the myth of global warming as a thinly-veiled initiative to generate new income tax streams. This is book that is a MUST-READ.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful. Best understood if one has a degree in statistics By George MC Clellan Best understood if one has a degree in statistics, but very enlightening at any rate. Montford details the actions and arguments of allplayers, exposing the unethical tactics that the originators of the hockey stick theory used to foist their scam on the public and, most harmfully, presented it to politicians for their misuse. You can read transcripts of some of the email exchanges among the players, further illuminating the development of the con job of the century.Complex story,. Excellent book.
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